I only have my hyper-local perspective here in my part of Michigan to go off of, but I’m one of five Democratic precinct delegates that got elected for my precinct this year. On the ballot, there were no PDs for Republicans. We’re actively handing out voter guides to Democratic voters and helping to organize them. I don’t know what The Republicans are doing. It’s weird.
Really interesting perspective, Dave. 'Weird' is the word. I think the weirdness is exacerbated in MI because of the MAGA/GOP implosion. But if organisation counts for anything if feels virtually impossible that Trump wins the state. I got the same vibe in Nevada.
Thanks for what you’re doing Lawrence. Your perspective is really giving me hope that we’re going to pull this off. I’m really hoping that this is the MAGA death knell.
Lara trump was put there to clean out the R’d of their party and their money Its all siphoned off to Trump Of vourse there is no ground game or anything its all a grift all of it everything Down to the last nail
Oh that's right...they wanted to run the GOP so they could take all the money & use it for his defense fund. That's another thing I've never seen done.
Great article. Thanks. You lifted my spirits before I go to bed. I’m still doing seven phone banks before Election Day to feel like I did something to prevent the end of America.
Thanks, this i didnt write it to cheer people up, though I'm glad it cheered you up. I wrote it because it's true. It's what I've found out on the road. Make sure to spread the word about my work. Im not sure anyone is doing what I'm doing.
Well, I have to be honest....how do I put this, the polls seem artificial to me. I don't know how to explain it. I don't know who they are polling, or if they're doing it right, but, how/why would they be literally tied? I've never seen that. Oh the talking heads go on & fear-monger, but....it's too strange. I don't think Trump will over-perform either. The 2016 race was badly messed with by hackers, & media manipulating smear stories about Hillary & nice ones about Trump. What these poll numbers don't explain is that he lost 20% of Haley voters that are not voting for him. Those voters didn't just decide to pick him because she told them to. Voters aren't like that & if those talking heads want us to think that, well...I'm not buying that.
Could be that the polls are capturing something real, but what they're capturing is only half the story. I won't be surprised if undecideds break for Harris the way they broke for Trump in 2016, and if that happens, it'll be a landslide victory.
You can read more about what polls actually mean, which people are missing, from this author:
Yes, the way the media is attacking Obama & black men is a set up to blame them for a loss, while using dog whistle racism. It is actually white women & men that are bringing this country to its knees by believing the lies & propaganda from Russia & republicans.
You have it exactly right. My travels tell me the same thing. There are far fewer Trump signs here in my corner of Virginia. I think women will deliver a resounding victory.
It took me longer to realise than I care to admit that Quinnipiac, Siena, Activote, YouGov and Morning Consult weren't a play on current child naming standards. Thanks for the article, it's given me more hope.
Maybe the failure is in my writing. The joke was somewhat of a reach, but I write to make myself laugh and , sadly, all of this polling crap is deeply embedded in my brain. 🤦😂
My feeling is that all polls are inaccurate as people lie on them in hopes to skew the results. It works. Most polls are anonymously taken and people, under that guise, will say anything. And never underestimate the racism in this country!
There's no GOTV effort for Trump because everyone who will vote for him has already made up their minds long ago - at this point he is losing voters, not gaining them. On a darker note, I think all their efforts and resources between now and after the election will be focused on suppressing Harris voters, possibly (let's be honest, probably) including through interference at polling places. Vote early and encourage your friends and family to do the same, and if you're voting on election day make sure to plan enough time to account for delays.
Good article. Eases the anxiety a tad. I grew up in NE Indiana about 30 minutes from Fort Wayne, so I know how red NE Indiana is. My hardcore Democratic mother and grandma (who turned 99 last month) can’t wait to vote for Kamala. Nice to hear that GOP office is hurting.
Fort Wayne itself has had a Democratic mayor for several terms, and they’ve done a great job making the downtown area lively. Mayor Tom Henry sadly died in March after being reelected to his fourth term in 2023. That wiener place is legit!
Yes. I heard about the mayor. Very sad. What a job he and other political leaders have done, though. Such a cool downtown. Not a wiener guy so I’ll have to take your word on it. I did buy a t-shirt tho, L
Well, well, well. Who knew? I don’t know if the ground game will matter (it should, but Trump is never normal), but perhaps it will allow some folks to pull themselves away quietly and vote for Harris. So there is some hope. Thanks for that. We never hear reporting like this.
I, too, don't believe the polls that say Kamala is just inches over tRump. His “rallies” (whining sessions) get more delusional as they go along. He doesn't care what he says. He'll say anything for a vote. Every one of Kamala’s has filled me with hope. She has to come out on top! 🌊
TFG said he doesn’t need the votes. So why have an organized ground game?
Because they don’t need it.
I’ve read they have their people in place to refuse certification of many local election boards. They’re going to create chaos.
VP Harris’s team have an army of lawyers to counter but TFG is counting on dragging it out with his minion judges in place, the corrupted and bought off Supreme Court.
Let’s hope it’s a tsunami of blue that cannot be denied or it’ll be a well designed mess brought to you by the Republican Party.
I am all in on being optimistic but the ground game all across the country for Rs is being done by Fox News. They're on 24/7 and campaigning the whole time. People don't even need to get out of bed to get their relentless fill of bullshit served up by Murdoch's crew.
I get all of that, Terry. But hours of screen ranting does not = ballots cast. Elections in 2024 are quite technical/logistical affairs. No frills. No bullshit. I tell people that David Plouffe is the Tiger Woods of political campaigning. He is blessed with generational talent but knows that when all is said and done it's about the grind.
My local D congressman, 3 going on 4 terms in a purple district,says the best ground game wins. Shout out to Mike Levin CA 49. Great reporting, Lawrence, I’m glad to discover you. Insomnia worth it.
Plouffe is a pretty common French Canadian name. Wikipedia has him hailing from Delaware, but I bet if you go back a generation or three, his family is from northern New England
As an Australian I sincerely apologise to the US and the rest of the world where the Murdoch press has been allowed to metastasise and spread its poison
I anxious to hear how it goes. I’m in Charleston and do see more Harris/Walz signs, but I did a quick analysis of registered voters vs number of votes in the last few elections, and it seems like we need both a lot of turnout and a lot of republicans to vote for Harris for WV to turn blue again. I feel like it’s a long shot, but fingers crossed.
I only have my hyper-local perspective here in my part of Michigan to go off of, but I’m one of five Democratic precinct delegates that got elected for my precinct this year. On the ballot, there were no PDs for Republicans. We’re actively handing out voter guides to Democratic voters and helping to organize them. I don’t know what The Republicans are doing. It’s weird.
Really interesting perspective, Dave. 'Weird' is the word. I think the weirdness is exacerbated in MI because of the MAGA/GOP implosion. But if organisation counts for anything if feels virtually impossible that Trump wins the state. I got the same vibe in Nevada.
Thanks for what you’re doing Lawrence. Your perspective is really giving me hope that we’re going to pull this off. I’m really hoping that this is the MAGA death knell.
Lara trump was put there to clean out the R’d of their party and their money Its all siphoned off to Trump Of vourse there is no ground game or anything its all a grift all of it everything Down to the last nail
Oh that's right...they wanted to run the GOP so they could take all the money & use it for his defense fund. That's another thing I've never seen done.
Great article. Thanks. You lifted my spirits before I go to bed. I’m still doing seven phone banks before Election Day to feel like I did something to prevent the end of America.
Thanks, this i didnt write it to cheer people up, though I'm glad it cheered you up. I wrote it because it's true. It's what I've found out on the road. Make sure to spread the word about my work. Im not sure anyone is doing what I'm doing.
Well, I have to be honest....how do I put this, the polls seem artificial to me. I don't know how to explain it. I don't know who they are polling, or if they're doing it right, but, how/why would they be literally tied? I've never seen that. Oh the talking heads go on & fear-monger, but....it's too strange. I don't think Trump will over-perform either. The 2016 race was badly messed with by hackers, & media manipulating smear stories about Hillary & nice ones about Trump. What these poll numbers don't explain is that he lost 20% of Haley voters that are not voting for him. Those voters didn't just decide to pick him because she told them to. Voters aren't like that & if those talking heads want us to think that, well...I'm not buying that.
Could be that the polls are capturing something real, but what they're capturing is only half the story. I won't be surprised if undecideds break for Harris the way they broke for Trump in 2016, and if that happens, it'll be a landslide victory.
You can read more about what polls actually mean, which people are missing, from this author:
https://realcarlallen.substack.com/p/possible-election-outcomes
Yes, the way the media is attacking Obama & black men is a set up to blame them for a loss, while using dog whistle racism. It is actually white women & men that are bringing this country to its knees by believing the lies & propaganda from Russia & republicans.
You have it exactly right. My travels tell me the same thing. There are far fewer Trump signs here in my corner of Virginia. I think women will deliver a resounding victory.
It took me longer to realise than I care to admit that Quinnipiac, Siena, Activote, YouGov and Morning Consult weren't a play on current child naming standards. Thanks for the article, it's given me more hope.
Maybe the failure is in my writing. The joke was somewhat of a reach, but I write to make myself laugh and , sadly, all of this polling crap is deeply embedded in my brain. 🤦😂
Nah it was good, I'd own it as a double play.
My feeling is that all polls are inaccurate as people lie on them in hopes to skew the results. It works. Most polls are anonymously taken and people, under that guise, will say anything. And never underestimate the racism in this country!
There's no GOTV effort for Trump because everyone who will vote for him has already made up their minds long ago - at this point he is losing voters, not gaining them. On a darker note, I think all their efforts and resources between now and after the election will be focused on suppressing Harris voters, possibly (let's be honest, probably) including through interference at polling places. Vote early and encourage your friends and family to do the same, and if you're voting on election day make sure to plan enough time to account for delays.
Clark County Ohio is Springfield. I am really hoping it goes blue this cycle, just to send a message to Trump/Vance.
Good article. Eases the anxiety a tad. I grew up in NE Indiana about 30 minutes from Fort Wayne, so I know how red NE Indiana is. My hardcore Democratic mother and grandma (who turned 99 last month) can’t wait to vote for Kamala. Nice to hear that GOP office is hurting.
It is hurting. Right next door to famous Weiner place , which was going like a fair.
Incidentally, Fort Wayne was awesome. Downtown really lively. Loved it. One of the nice surprises on my road trip. 👍
Fort Wayne itself has had a Democratic mayor for several terms, and they’ve done a great job making the downtown area lively. Mayor Tom Henry sadly died in March after being reelected to his fourth term in 2023. That wiener place is legit!
Yes. I heard about the mayor. Very sad. What a job he and other political leaders have done, though. Such a cool downtown. Not a wiener guy so I’ll have to take your word on it. I did buy a t-shirt tho, L
I’m hoping Texas goes purple!
I'm going to Texas later this week... Looking for lyin' Ted 🤦😂
I’m sure he’s hiding here somewhere. 😑
Well, well, well. Who knew? I don’t know if the ground game will matter (it should, but Trump is never normal), but perhaps it will allow some folks to pull themselves away quietly and vote for Harris. So there is some hope. Thanks for that. We never hear reporting like this.
I, too, don't believe the polls that say Kamala is just inches over tRump. His “rallies” (whining sessions) get more delusional as they go along. He doesn't care what he says. He'll say anything for a vote. Every one of Kamala’s has filled me with hope. She has to come out on top! 🌊
TFG said he doesn’t need the votes. So why have an organized ground game?
Because they don’t need it.
I’ve read they have their people in place to refuse certification of many local election boards. They’re going to create chaos.
VP Harris’s team have an army of lawyers to counter but TFG is counting on dragging it out with his minion judges in place, the corrupted and bought off Supreme Court.
Let’s hope it’s a tsunami of blue that cannot be denied or it’ll be a well designed mess brought to you by the Republican Party.
We will see.
I am all in on being optimistic but the ground game all across the country for Rs is being done by Fox News. They're on 24/7 and campaigning the whole time. People don't even need to get out of bed to get their relentless fill of bullshit served up by Murdoch's crew.
I get all of that, Terry. But hours of screen ranting does not = ballots cast. Elections in 2024 are quite technical/logistical affairs. No frills. No bullshit. I tell people that David Plouffe is the Tiger Woods of political campaigning. He is blessed with generational talent but knows that when all is said and done it's about the grind.
My local D congressman, 3 going on 4 terms in a purple district,says the best ground game wins. Shout out to Mike Levin CA 49. Great reporting, Lawrence, I’m glad to discover you. Insomnia worth it.
If that’s true we can all go to bed and wake up on November 6, well rested and happy. (Fat Chance! lolz)
Yeah, maybe it applies to his district mostly. But we can hope.
And yet his name sounds so..... light. Sorry, that's petty of me. But srsly, you are giving me hope. 💙🗳️🌊
Plouffe is a pretty common French Canadian name. Wikipedia has him hailing from Delaware, but I bet if you go back a generation or three, his family is from northern New England
As an Australian I sincerely apologise to the US and the rest of the world where the Murdoch press has been allowed to metastasise and spread its poison
We drove around the conservative town next to us. Not one Trump sign. Not a single one. I consider that a poll.
No ..it was a slip of the thumb. I did say not to be used for gambling purposes..lol
Actually, I'm heading to WVA today. Going to Beckley.
I anxious to hear how it goes. I’m in Charleston and do see more Harris/Walz signs, but I did a quick analysis of registered voters vs number of votes in the last few elections, and it seems like we need both a lot of turnout and a lot of republicans to vote for Harris for WV to turn blue again. I feel like it’s a long shot, but fingers crossed.